Key Points:
The CFA Association's analysis of financial data recorded in April estimates that the euro will exceed the 5 lei per euro threshold in the next six months.
Experts have also estimated the evolution of inflation and prices in the real estate sector.
Euro/Leu Exchange Rate:
Approximately 88% of CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) Association members anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months, while the rest estimate stagnation.
The average forecast value for the 6-month horizon is 5.0172 lei for one euro.
For the 12-month horizon, the average forecast rate is 5.0719 lei for one euro.
Economic Confidence Index:
The CFA Romania Economic Confidence Index fell by 12.3 points in April to 47.1 points.
This was due to a decrease in both components of the index.
Inflation and Real Estate Prices:
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (May 2025) increased compared to the previous exercise, reaching an average value of 5.73%.
At the same time, over 59% of participants expect the inflation rate to decrease in the next 12 months (compared to 75% in the previous exercise).
Analysts expect public debt to reach 55% of GDP in the next 12 months.
Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, the majority of participants, 53%, anticipate a decrease in the next 12 months, while 23.5% anticipate an increase in prices, and the remaining 23.5% estimate stability.
Also, 70% of participants consider current prices to be overvalued, while 30% consider them to be fairly valued.
State Budget Deficit and Economic Growth:
The state budget deficit forecast for 2024 is anticipated (average forecast value) to increase compared to the previous exercise, reaching 5.7%.
Economic growth expectations for the current year have been reduced by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous exercise, to 1.9%.
Conclusion:
Bank analysts expect the euro to continue to appreciate against the leu in the coming months, surpassing the 5 lei per euro mark by the end of 2024. They also expect inflation to remain elevated but to start moderating in the second half of the year. Real estate prices are expected to stabilize or even decline slightly in the next 12 months.
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