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futureofromania

Analysis of the Day: Romania's Low Reserve Ratio Raises Concerns Among Economists

Key Points:

  • Romania's international reserves as a percentage of GDP are the lowest in the EU.

  • This has raised concerns among economists about the country's ability to withstand financial shocks.

  • The reserves have been declining in recent years due to factors such as a widening trade deficit and a decrease in foreign investment.

  • Economists have called for the government to take steps to increase reserves, such as reducing the budget deficit and attracting more foreign investment.

Additional Details:

  • Romania's international reserves stood at €69.7 billion at the end of April 2024.

  • This is equivalent to 20.4% of GDP, the lowest level in the EU.

  • Hungary is the second-lowest country, with a reserves-to-GDP ratio of 21.1%.

  • The Czech Republic has the highest ratio, at 43.9%.

  • Economists say that a reserves-to-GDP ratio of at least 30% is considered safe.

  • Romania's low reserves make it vulnerable to sudden changes in capital flows.

  • For example, if foreign investors suddenly withdraw their money from Romania, the country could be forced to devalue its currency.

  • This could lead to higher inflation and lower economic growth.

  • The government has said that it is taking steps to increase reserves, but economists say that more needs to be done.

Overall, Romania's low reserves are a cause for concern. The government needs to take action to increase reserves and reduce the country's vulnerability to financial shocks.

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